Name
Warmer future climate in Canada - implications for plant hardiness and winter survival of perennial forage crops
Date & Time
Monday, May 8, 2023, 2:30 PM - 2:45 PM
Description
A comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on plant hardiness and winter survival of perennial crops is needed to proactively adapt to climate change in the agricultural and forestry sectors. Based on the most up-to-date climate projections from a set of global climate models, we used the USDA plant hardiness model, a snow model and a suite of agroclimatic indices for perennial forage crops to assess potential changes in plant hardiness zones and impacts on winter survival of perennial forage crops across Canada in the near-term (2030s), the mid-term (2050s) and the distant future (2070s). We found that plant hardiness zones would continuously shift northward by two or more zones in the 2070s as the 30-yr mean annual minimum air temperature averaged across the country could increase from -41.3�C (1985-2014) to -29.4�C (2060-2089). The projected changes are slightly larger in northern Canada (north of 60�N) than southern Canada. However, it is more complex when assessing winter survival of perennial forage crops in southern Canada as snowfall would decline by 20 cm, cold period (daily minimum air temperature ? -15�C) could be 40 days shorter with disappearing cold period at some southern locations and number of cold days without a protective snow cover (? 10 cm) might also slightly decrease by 10 days in the 2070s. Future warmer climate might provide better opportunities for fall hardening but increased winter thawing could potentially increase the risk of winter injury in some regions.
Location Name
Maple
Full Address
Banff Park Lodge Resort Hotel & Conference Centre
201 Lynx St
Banff AB T1L 1K5
Canada
Abstract
A comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on plant hardiness and winter survival of perennial crops is needed to proactively adapt to climate change in the agricultural and forestry sectors. Based on the most up-to-date climate projections from a set of global climate models, we used the USDA plant hardiness model, a snow model and a suite of agroclimatic indices for perennial forage crops to assess potential changes in plant hardiness zones and impacts on winter survival of perennial forage crops across Canada in the near-term (2030s), the mid-term (2050s) and the distant future (2070s). We found that plant hardiness zones would continuously shift northward by two or more zones in the 2070s as the 30-yr mean annual minimum air temperature averaged across the country could increase from -41.3�C (1985-2014) to -29.4�C (2060-2089). The projected changes are slightly larger in northern Canada (north of 60�N) than southern Canada. However, it is more complex when assessing winter survival of perennial forage crops in southern Canada as snowfall would decline by 20 cm, cold period (daily minimum air temperature ? -15�C) could be 40 days shorter with disappearing cold period at some southern locations and number of cold days without a protective snow cover (? 10 cm) might also slightly decrease by 10 days in the 2070s. Future warmer climate might provide better opportunities for fall hardening but increased winter thawing could potentially increase the risk of winter injury in some regions.
Session Type
Breakout Session