Name
The 30 November 2022 Peace River earthquake sequence: Natural or induced?
Date & Time
Tuesday, May 9, 2023, 2:45 PM - 3:00 PM
David Eaton
Description
A sequence of seismicity near Peace River, Alberta on 2022-11-30 produced a MW5.3 mainshock, with several significant foreshocks and extensive aftershocks. These events occurred within a formerly seismically quiescent region and in proximity to brine disposal wells associated with in situ bitumen production. Determination of whether this sequence was induced or natural could have significant ramifications for regulations in Alberta, but the sequence highlights challenges in discriminating natural from injection-induced events. Although the immediate epicentral region has been historically quiescent, inferred natural and induced seismicity have been observed at distances > 20 km; published fault maps are inconsistent in this area; estimated hypocentre locations exhibit a range of depths, with the shallowest placing the hypocentre near the top of Precambrian basement; and sporadic fluid injections have occurred at various depths within the epicentral region, some of which is ongoing. Criteria for recognizing injection-induced earthquakes, established three decades ago, consider factors such as spatiotemporal correlation with injection operations, locations of known faults, prior levels of seismicity activity, modelled stress changes at the hypocenter, existence of permeable pathways, focal depth and source mechanism. This approach has been refined in several recent publications. An expert panel has been convened to use several new schemes to evaluate if the Peace River earthquake sequence was natural or induced, and the results of that evaluation will be summarized.
Location Name
Aspen
Full Address
Banff Park Lodge Resort Hotel & Conference Centre
201 Lynx St
Banff AB T1L 1K5
Canada
Abstract
A sequence of seismicity near Peace River, Alberta on 2022-11-30 produced a MW5.3 mainshock, with several significant foreshocks and extensive aftershocks. These events occurred within a formerly seismically quiescent region and in proximity to brine disposal wells associated with in situ bitumen production. Determination of whether this sequence was induced or natural could have significant ramifications for regulations in Alberta, but the sequence highlights challenges in discriminating natural from injection-induced events. Although the immediate epicentral region has been historically quiescent, inferred natural and induced seismicity have been observed at distances > 20 km; published fault maps are inconsistent in this area; estimated hypocentre locations exhibit a range of depths, with the shallowest placing the hypocentre near the top of Precambrian basement; and sporadic fluid injections have occurred at various depths within the epicentral region, some of which is ongoing. Criteria for recognizing injection-induced earthquakes, established three decades ago, consider factors such as spatiotemporal correlation with injection operations, locations of known faults, prior levels of seismicity activity, modelled stress changes at the hypocenter, existence of permeable pathways, focal depth and source mechanism. This approach has been refined in several recent publications. An expert panel has been convened to use several new schemes to evaluate if the Peace River earthquake sequence was natural or induced, and the results of that evaluation will be summarized.
Session Type
Breakout Session