Name
Rarest rainfall event will see the greatest relative increase in magnitude under future climate change
Date & Time
Monday, May 8, 2023, 2:45 PM - 3:00 PM
Gaby Gründemann
Description
According to both theory and climate models, an increase in future rainfall extremes is expected with global warming. However, the impact on common (annual) and rare (decennial or centennial) extremes could differ. We have conducted a study using 25 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, considering a range of plausible scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions, to study how common and rare extremes are projected to change in the future. Our findings show that the rarer the event, the more likely it is to increase in a future climate. Specifically, we have found that by the end of this century, daily land rainfall extremes could increase in magnitude between 10.5% and 28.2% for annual events, and between 13.5% and 38.3% for centennial events, respectively for low and high emission scenarios. These results are consistent across climate models, although regional variations are evident. For Canadian provinces and territories, we find consistently that the rarest extremes increase the most. The magnitude of this increase is not uniform, with relatively higher increase in the north, and lower increase around the prairies.
Location Name
Lynx
Full Address
Banff Park Lodge Resort Hotel & Conference Centre
201 Lynx St
Banff AB T1L 1K5
Canada
Abstract
According to both theory and climate models, an increase in future rainfall extremes is expected with global warming. However, the impact on common (annual) and rare (decennial or centennial) extremes could differ. We have conducted a study using 25 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, considering a range of plausible scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions, to study how common and rare extremes are projected to change in the future. Our findings show that the rarer the event, the more likely it is to increase in a future climate. Specifically, we have found that by the end of this century, daily land rainfall extremes could increase in magnitude between 10.5% and 28.2% for annual events, and between 13.5% and 38.3% for centennial events, respectively for low and high emission scenarios. These results are consistent across climate models, although regional variations are evident. For Canadian provinces and territories, we find consistently that the rarest extremes increase the most. The magnitude of this increase is not uniform, with relatively higher increase in the north, and lower increase around the prairies.
Session Type
Breakout Session