Name
Assessing the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Compound Inland Flooding Events across Western North America under a Changing Climate
Date & Time
Monday, May 8, 2023, 2:30 PM - 2:45 PM
Description
Compound inland floods, resulting from multiple hydrometeorological drivers, can lead to severe consequences. Understanding the regional variability and associated uncertainties of these events under a changing climate is crucial for future design and planning. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can cause intense precipitation, making them a significant contributor to compound events. The length and width of ARs are expected to increase under climate change. This study characterizes AR-induced compound inland flooding events across western North America, including rain-on-snow (ROS) and saturation excess flooding (SEF), and a series of precipitation (SOP) events. Metrics such as column relative humidity (CRH) and primary condensation rate (PCR) are considered to identify ARs in addition to the standard variables such as integrated water vapor (IWV) and integrated vapor transport (IVT). The study is based on the CanRCM4 large ensemble simulations for the baseline period of 1986 to 2016, and three 31-year time frames corresponding to warming levels of 1.5, 2, and 4�C compared to the preindustrial levels. Preliminary results suggest potential increases in SOP and SEF occurrences during AR events leading to heavy runoff at higher warming levels. Additionally, there are noticeable increases in ROS events and their contributions to extreme flows over the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West regions. This research provides a broad framework for interpreting the analysis of inland compound events generated by ARs in the context of climate change. By strengthening existing risk modeling, this study can help inform future design and planning for mitigating the impact of compound inland flooding events.
Location Name
Lynx
Full Address
Banff Park Lodge Resort Hotel & Conference Centre
201 Lynx St
Banff AB T1L 1K5
Canada
Abstract
Compound inland floods, resulting from multiple hydrometeorological drivers, can lead to severe consequences. Understanding the regional variability and associated uncertainties of these events under a changing climate is crucial for future design and planning. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can cause intense precipitation, making them a significant contributor to compound events. The length and width of ARs are expected to increase under climate change. This study characterizes AR-induced compound inland flooding events across western North America, including rain-on-snow (ROS) and saturation excess flooding (SEF), and a series of precipitation (SOP) events. Metrics such as column relative humidity (CRH) and primary condensation rate (PCR) are considered to identify ARs in addition to the standard variables such as integrated water vapor (IWV) and integrated vapor transport (IVT). The study is based on the CanRCM4 large ensemble simulations for the baseline period of 1986 to 2016, and three 31-year time frames corresponding to warming levels of 1.5, 2, and 4�C compared to the preindustrial levels. Preliminary results suggest potential increases in SOP and SEF occurrences during AR events leading to heavy runoff at higher warming levels. Additionally, there are noticeable increases in ROS events and their contributions to extreme flows over the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West regions. This research provides a broad framework for interpreting the analysis of inland compound events generated by ARs in the context of climate change. By strengthening existing risk modeling, this study can help inform future design and planning for mitigating the impact of compound inland flooding events.
Session Type
Breakout Session