Name
The impact of permafrost and water temperature changes on Canada's Arctic
Date & Time
Monday, May 8, 2023, 1:30 PM - 1:45 PM
Marie Broesky
Description
Understanding changes of permafrost cover and river water temperature in the Pan-Arctic domain is paramount for present-day decision makers, as local and regional feedback cycles intensify the impacts of climate change. Ice roads and infrastructure of remote communities has long relied on steady seasonal cycles but impacts due to climate change translate to socio-economic and community vulnerabilities. This study aims to assess the potential magnitude and location (hot spots and hot moments) of changes in water and soil temperature throughout the Canadian Pan-Arctic domain. Presented will be the preliminary results from using the updated Arctic-HYPE version 4 model to model river and soil temperature for a 40 year historical period (1979-2019) and an ensemble for the future period (2020-2100). The modelled data, being spatially complete, is vital for understanding changes in the Arctic where the observational network is sparse. It will allow for hot spots and hot moments to be pinpointed through the calculation of change points in addition to trend analysis which describes how quickly warming may occur. Future work will focus on identifying communities where nearby rivers are predicted to show significant warming, and where permafrost cover is predicted to deteriorate. Additionally, modelled outputs from this hydrological modelling effort such as streamflow data is intended for further use as freshwater and temperature fluxes into the Arctic Ocean within the NEMO ocean circulation model to explore the impacts of Arctic climate change on thermohaline-driven circulation patterns, and global climate change feedback loops.
Location Name
Ballroom
Full Address
Banff Park Lodge Resort Hotel & Conference Centre
201 Lynx St
Banff AB T1L 1K5
Canada
Abstract
Understanding changes of permafrost cover and river water temperature in the Pan-Arctic domain is paramount for present-day decision makers, as local and regional feedback cycles intensify the impacts of climate change. Ice roads and infrastructure of remote communities has long relied on steady seasonal cycles but impacts due to climate change translate to socio-economic and community vulnerabilities. This study aims to assess the potential magnitude and location (hot spots and hot moments) of changes in water and soil temperature throughout the Canadian Pan-Arctic domain. Presented will be the preliminary results from using the updated Arctic-HYPE version 4 model to model river and soil temperature for a 40 year historical period (1979-2019) and an ensemble for the future period (2020-2100). The modelled data, being spatially complete, is vital for understanding changes in the Arctic where the observational network is sparse. It will allow for hot spots and hot moments to be pinpointed through the calculation of change points in addition to trend analysis which describes how quickly warming may occur. Future work will focus on identifying communities where nearby rivers are predicted to show significant warming, and where permafrost cover is predicted to deteriorate. Additionally, modelled outputs from this hydrological modelling effort such as streamflow data is intended for further use as freshwater and temperature fluxes into the Arctic Ocean within the NEMO ocean circulation model to explore the impacts of Arctic climate change on thermohaline-driven circulation patterns, and global climate change feedback loops.
Session Type
Breakout Session