Name
Earthquake Declustering of Canadian Seismicity using Supervised Machine Learning
Date & Time
Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 10:45 AM - 11:00 AM
Description
Earthquake declustering involves separating background events within earthquake sequences, a process that is important for seismic hazard and forecasting analysis. In this study, we apply a Supervised Machine Learning (SML) declustering algorithm to Canadian seismicity across six regions varying by tectonic behaviour. Regional parameters are estimated with the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model and maximum likelihood methods, and are then used to generate synthetic catalogs for training and testing the SML classifier. Declustering results are verified by comparing results from the nearest-neighbour distance (NND) method and stochastic declustering. Statistical tests including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) and Brown–Zhao (BZ) tests are used to verify independence, by confirming that background events satisfy a homogeneous Poisson process. Results show a high declustering accuracy for synthetic catalogs across all regions, outperforming previous models such as the Stochastic Declustering (SD) and NND-based Zaliapin and Ben-Zion model in every region. Estimated ETAS parameters indicate a higher earthquake productivity rate in Western Canada and the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin and a lower rate in Eastern Canada, aligning with their respective estimated aftershock ratios. Consequently, declustering results highlight tectonic variability across Canada, revealing both the strengths and limitations of the SML algorithm.
Location Name
Marion McCaine-Ondaatje Hall
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
384
Speaker Organization
Western University
Session Name
S4 (1 of 2)
Co-authors
Robert Shcherbakov (Western University)
Presenting Author
Gabriela Perez (Western University)