Large-scale geological CO₂ sequestration is being considered in southwestern Ontario to support greenhouse-gas reduction targets. However, large-scale subsurface injections could elevate pore pressure and trigger induced earthquakes in this densely populated, infrastructure-rich region. Ontario currently lacks a dedicated induced-seismicity regulatory framework for deep injection associated with carbon sequestration. We address this gap by synthesizing regional geological and geomechanical conditions relevant to fault reactivation and lessons learned from induced-seismicity case histories in nearby jurisdictions (notably Ohio). A major challenge in southwestern Ontario is the limited availability of subsurface geomechanical parameters (e.g., in-situ stress, pore pressure, fault properties, and rock strength), which increases uncertainty and complicates the development of practical regulatory requirements. Within this data-limited context, we propose a practical first-order regulatory roadmap that links (1) baseline site characterization and uncertainty documentation, (2) site-appropriate seismic monitoring (surface networks complemented by downhole arrays where needed), and (3) a consequence-based Traffic Light Protocol with clear operational response actions. This integrated approach will support responsible CO₂ sequestration while managing induced-seismicity hazards.
Halifax NS
Canada