Name
Annual Seismic Hazard Maps for the Montney Play, British Columbia: Insights from Seismicity and Fluid Injection Patterns
Date & Time
Monday, May 25, 2026, 3:00 PM - 3:15 PM
Description
The Montney Play in British Columbia and Alberta is one of the most seismically active hydrocarbon developments in Canada due to large-scale hydraulic fracturing. We hindcast annual seismic hazard maps for the period of 2014-2015 using a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) framework and compare them with earthquake density, cumulative seismic moment, and total volumes of fluid injected maps. Results show strong temporal and spatial variability: some notable patterns are (1) the low seismic hazard levels in the early years of study from 2014 to 2016; and (2) peaking hazard levels in the year 2017 to 2019. Earthquake density correlates most consistently with hazard, while cumulative seismic moment and injected volumes display more complex and nuanced relationships. Elevated injection volumes coincide with high hazard in some years but not others, underscoring the role of geological and operational factors. The 12 year-long record demonstrates that induced seismic hazard in the Montney Play is dynamic and spatially heterogeneous, requiring integrated approaches that consider seismicity metrics, operational practices, and local geologic conditions. Future work will focus on developing Montney-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and extending the analysis to risk frameworks, i.e. including population density to compute nuisance.
Location Name
Marion McCaine-Ondaatje Hall
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
3
Speaker Organization
University of Alberta
Session Name
S3
Co-authors
Mirko van der Baan (University of Alberta)
Presenting Author
Raisha Pradisti (University of Alberta)