Although climate change impacts groundwater recharge (GWR), land cover change may also substantially modify GWR, yet challenges in projecting land cover trajectories explain why combined effects have rarely been assessed. Characterizing the role of land cover is nevertheless essential to develop climate adaptation targets for groundwater and water resources. This study assessed the combined impacts of climate and land cover change on future GWR and evaluated how simulations can inform adaptation strategies at multiple scales. Spatially distributed transient GWR was simulated with the HydroBudget model for past and future conditions using 14 climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) and three land cover scenarios in a cold, humid peri-urban region of eastern Canada. The study area west of Montréal covers 1,650 km² and includes 19 municipalities. At the regional scale, mean GWR changes for 2041–2070 relative to 1991–2010 ranged from −1 mm to +10 mm under SSP2-4.5 and were slightly smaller under SSP3-7.0. Adding land cover scenarios produced modest additional regional changes (around −5 mm). In contrast, municipal-scale analysis revealed amplified responses, with land cover change causing local decreases of −10 mm to −20 mm. The largest municipal-scale declines were mostly associated with land cover scenarios involving the conversion of forested or agricultural areas to urban land covers. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of spatial scale in GWR assessments and are promising to demonstrate the potential of GWR simulation for informing locally relevant climate adaptation targets.