Name
Numerical simulations of groundwater flow systems in the context of a deep geological repository under glacial cycles and permafrost freeze/thaw
Date & Time
Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 2:30 PM - 2:45 PM
Description
Two-dimensional numerical simulations have been conducted for the Nuclear Waste Management Organisation’s proposed deep geological repository (DGR) in northwestern Ontario, Canada. The conceptual model includes coupled density-dependent groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport with freeze-thaw, and advective-dispersive brine transport within a discretely-fractured porous medium, simulated using the finite element HEATFLOW/SMOKER code. Surface conditions include glacier advance and retreat over 120,000 years, glacial loading, and variable air and ground-ice temperatures derived using the University of Toronto Glacial Systems Model (GSM), which is based on ice-sheet simulations combined with data assimilation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) reconstructions. Geological and cryo-hydrogeological data are based on site-specific investigations, and on representative data collected from permafrost research sites at Umiujaq and Salluit, Nunavik, Quebec, Canada. Predictive simulations under various scenarios show maximum permafrost depths on the order of 300-400 m, remaining above the proposed 750 m depth of the DGR. While permafrost growth reduces the effective permeability and groundwater flow rates, transient periods are identified where taliks (unfrozen zones) may form in areas of localised recharge/discharge connected to surface water by high fracture densities. Deep brines remain essentially immobile. Travel times are on the order of millions of years, reflecting extremely low groundwater velocities at the repository depth. The simulations suggest that radioisotope heat generation from the DGR will have limited impact on permafrost depth.
Location Name
DSU 224
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
254
Speaker Organization
Université Laval
Session Name
IAH-14
Co-authors
M. Malmir, R. Therrien, Université Laval, Quebec, QC
J. Chen, Nuclear Waste Management Organisation, Toronto, ON
Presenting Author
John Molson, Université Laval