Name
Flood Hazard Mapping under CMIP6 Climate Change Scenarios in the Swift Current Creek Basin, Saskatchewan
Date & Time
Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 2:15 PM - 2:30 PM
Description
Projected changes in extreme precipitation under climate change are expected to alter flood frequency and magnitude across the Canadian Prairies, posing increasing risks to communities and infrastructure. This study develops an integrated modeling framework to assess future flood hazards in the semi-arid Swift Current Creek Basin, Saskatchewan, under CMIP6 climate change scenarios. The framework couples watershed-scale hydrologic simulations, hydraulic flood modeling, and statistical frequency analysis to quantify spatial and temporal changes in flood risk. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is implemented to simulate historical and future streamflow using bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections under selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Model calibration and validation are performed using observed hydro-meteorological data to ensure reliable representation of basin hydrology. Simulated peak discharges are subsequently analyzed using HEC-SSP to estimate flood magnitudes associated with multiple return periods. These design flows are then routed through a high-resolution HEC-RAS hydraulic model to generate flood extent, depth, and velocity maps for historical and future periods. Preliminary results indicate a shift toward increased flood magnitude and inundation extent under future climate scenarios, particularly for mid-century and late-century periods. Changes are most pronounced for moderate to extreme return periods, reflecting intensification of heavy precipitation events. The resulting flood hazard maps provide spatially explicit insights into areas of increased vulnerability under climate change. This integrated SWAT, HEC-SSP and HEC-RAS framework offers a robust approach for climate-informed flood risk assessment and supports adaptation planning, and infrastructure resilience in prairie river basins.
Location Name
DSU 303
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
29
Speaker Organization
PARC
Session Name
H7 (2 of 4)
Co-authors
Mohammad Zare and David Sauchyn;Prairie Adaptations Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, S4S 0A2, Canada
Presenting Author
Mohammad Zare and David Sauchyn;Prairie Adaptations Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, S4S 0A2, Canada