Name
Dominant Modes of Seasonal Moisture Flux Variability and Their Synoptic Drivers Over the Canadian Prairies
Date & Time
Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 10:30 AM - 10:45 AM
Description
The North American Prairies are a region of critical importance to continental hydro-climate and agriculture, exhibiting high sensitivity to variability in atmospheric moisture transport. This study investigates the seasonal and interannual variability of integrated moisture flux over the Canadian Prairie region (96°–114°W, 49°N–53°N) using the Na-tional Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis dataset from 1979 to 2023. We employ a combination of composite analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to identify the dominant modes of variability and their associated large-scale synoptic drivers. Our results confirm a strong seasonal reversal: winter moisture flux is predominantly zonal (westerly), contributing an average of 90% to total inbound flux, while summer flux is primarily meridional (southerly), contributing a dominant 72.6%. Composite analysis of extreme moisture years reveals that anomalously high moisture winters are associated with an intensified Aleutian Low and a strengthened pressure gradient off the North American west coast, facilitating enhanced westerly flow. Conversely, a strengthened continental high-pressure system characterizes anomalously low moisture winters by. During summer, high moisture years are driven by an en-hanced southerly component of flow, likely linked to a strengthened Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ). The first EOF mode for winter explains 43% of the variance in eastward flux and is characterized by a pattern consistent with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern. These findings underscore the control of Pacific-centric circulation patterns on Prairie hydroclimate in winter and have significant implications for predicting seasonal water availability.
Location Name
DSU - 303*
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
28
Speaker Organization
University of Regina
Session Name
H7 (1 of 4)
Co-authors
David Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina
Presenting Author
Soumik Basu, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina