Name
Dominant Modes of Seasonal Moisture Flux Variability and Their Synoptic Drivers Over the Canadian Prairies
Date & Time
Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 10:30 AM - 10:45 AM
Description
The North American Prairies are a region of critical importance to continental hydro-climate and agriculture, exhibiting high sensitivity to variability in atmospheric moisture transport. This study investigates the seasonal and interannual variability of integrated moisture flux over the Canadian Prairie region (96°–114°W, 49°N–53°N) using the Na-tional Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis dataset from 1979 to 2023. We employ a combination of composite analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to identify the dominant modes of variability and their associated large-scale synoptic drivers. Our results confirm a strong seasonal reversal: winter moisture flux is predominantly zonal (westerly), contributing an average of 90% to total inbound flux, while summer flux is primarily meridional (southerly), contributing a dominant 72.6%. Composite analysis of extreme moisture years reveals that anomalously high moisture winters are associated with an intensified Aleutian Low and a strengthened pressure gradient off the North American west coast, facilitating enhanced westerly flow. Conversely, a strengthened continental high-pressure system characterizes anomalously low moisture winters by. During summer, high moisture years are driven by an en-hanced southerly component of flow, likely linked to a strengthened Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ). The first EOF mode for winter explains 43% of the variance in eastward flux and is characterized by a pattern consistent with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern. These findings underscore the control of Pacific-centric circulation patterns on Prairie hydroclimate in winter and have significant implications for predicting seasonal water availability.
Location Name
DSU 303
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
28
Speaker Organization
University of Regina
Session Name
H7 (1 of 4)
Co-authors
David Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina
Presenting Author
Soumik Basu, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina