Name
Permafrost Distribution in the Canadian Rockies: Key Variables Influencing Patch‐Scale Variability
Date & Time
Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 5:15 PM - 5:30 PM
Description
The spatial distribution of permafrost in mountainous regions is influenced by various factors such as topography, climate, vegetation, and substrate. Despite the existence of comprehensive permafrost maps at national and global levels, they fail to accurately represent the patch-scale (e.g., < 25 m) permafrost distribution in characteristic landforms of alpine zones, such as talus slopes, moraines, and rock glaciers. This study aims to improve the understanding of permafrost distribution in these environments, focusing on patch-scale variability and the influence of sediment size. These landforms are key hydrological and ecological components of high-altitude basins, providing persistently cold discharges that are critical for maintaining the ecological balance of mountain ecosystems. By using data-driven techniques (i.e., logistic regression, support vector machines, and random forests), the spatial distribution of permafrost in six alpine basins within the Canadian Rockies was examined. The results indicate that the enhanced vegetation index, sediment size, and slope angle are the most important variables for predicting permafrost at the patch scale in these environments. However, the influence of the predicting variables strongly varied across different sites. Although the models trained with data from all sites effectively capture site-specific features and provide accurate representations of permafrost distribution, their applicability is limited in areas where predictor values fall outside the training domain. Overall, this study improves permafrost predictions and advances the understanding of the key factors shaping permafrost distribution in mountainous regions, highlighting the role of natural convection and sediment size in permafrost occurrence within alpine landforms.
Location Name
McInnes Room
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
233
Speaker Organization
WSP
Session Name
H2 (3 of 3)
Co-authors
Masaki Hayashi, University of Calgary Pablo Mendoza, Universidad de Chile
Presenting Author
Gerardo Zegers, WSP