Name
Evaluating Groundwater Recharge and Pathways in Changing Permafrost Environments: Developing a Hybrid Modelling Framework
Date & Time
Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 4:00 PM - 5:30 PM
Description
Changes in meteorology, vegetation shifts, and permafrost degradation in northern regions are fundamentally reshaping groundwater dynamics, transitioning from local, frozen-ground-constrained systems to interconnected regional aquifers. This transition not only alters infiltration pathways and subsurface flow but also raises emerging challenges for water resource management in northern communities, where groundwater availability and vulnerability are expected to evolve rapidly. However, existing models often overlook the intricate interactions between surface and subsurface processes, thereby limiting the reliability of projections for groundwater resources under changing climatic and environmental conditions. To address this challenge, we introduce a hybrid modelling framework that explores the possibilities offered by combining the state-of-the-art ORCHIDEE land surface model — tailored for high-latitude processes and resolving surface energy and water balances — with the Ginette cryohydrogeological model, which simulates subsurface heat transfer and groundwater flow. This integrated approach is initially tested using synthetic two-dimensional hillslope profiles to investigate long-term tendencies in groundwater recharge and flow pathways within both supra- and sub-permafrost aquifers. Sensitivity analyses are used to examine how recharge responds to soil properties, landscape factors, changes in land cover, and climate forcing, as well as selected process parameterisation choices. In a subsequent step, this framework is intended to be applied to well-documented case studies spanning continuous and discontinuous permafrost regions in northern Canada, drawing on available field observations and remote sensing data. Overall, this work aims to provide a modelling basis to better explore permafrost–groundwater interactions and their potential implications for groundwater resources in a changing northern environment.
Location Name
McInnes Room
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Poster
Abstract ID
147
Speaker Organization
Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Université Laval
Session Name
H-2
Co-authors
Agnès Rivière, Mines Paris - PSL
Presenting Author
Anne Jost, Takuvik