Name
An Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Estimating Wetland Carbon Fluxes at High Spatiotemporal Resolution
Date & Time
Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 3:00 PM - 3:15 PM
Description
Wetlands can mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration, but they can also be a source of greenhouse gas emissions. To analyze these trade-offs, we used observed data from 287 wetland sites across the United States, compiled from eddy covariance tower and gas chamber datasets. Multiple machine learning algorithms (Random Forest; XGBoost; SVM - Support Vector Machine; ANN - Artificial Neural Network; and PLSR - Partial Least Squares Regression) were trained to predict gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RECO), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and methane (CH₄) fluxes using 27 environmental drivers at a monthly time scale. To account for spatial heterogeneity, models were trained by ecoregions, including High-Latitude Temperate, Mid-Latitude Temperate, SE Coastal Plains, Great Plains, Mediterranean California, and Alaska. These regional models were then used to spatially scaled up GPP, RECO, NEE and CH4 flux for the whole United States across 2000–2020 using a multi-model framework and gridded drivers. Overall, model evaluation showed that GPP and RECO models perform strongly across regions and algorithms. NEE predictions exhibited greater variability in performance but remained relatively strong, compared to RECO, GPP and CH4 models. PLSR consistently yields the weakest performance for NEE predictions. Among different regions, CH4 models perform best in Mediterranean California, with a particularly weak performance in the High-Latitude Temperate. Gridded predictions highlighted strong spatial contrasts, with localized hotspots of both carbon sequestration and emissions. Overall, our results highlight a transferable, data-driven framework for informing conservation strategies across a range of climatic settings.
Location Name
McCain 2021
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
236
Speaker Organization
Simon Fraser University
Session Name
B7
Co-authors
Latif Kalin - College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA; Mohamed Hantush - U.S. EPA Center for Environmental Solutions and Emergency Response, 26 West Martin Luther King Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45268, USA; Zutao Ouyang - College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA.
Presenting Author
Ana Flavia Brancalion Costa - School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada