Name
Canadian wildfire impacts, exposure, and social costs attributed to climate change over the 21st century
Date & Time
Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 11:45 AM - 12:00 PM
Description
Canadian wildfires are escalating due to climate change with sweeping consequences for Canadian ecosystems and the global carbon cycle alongside growing costs associated with management, infrastructure damage, forestry losses, and human health. Here, we examine the impacts of Canadian wildfire attributed to climate change using the CLASSIC (Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including biogeochemical Cycles) model, comparing alternative future scenarios – the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) – to simulations with a pre-industrial climate and future population trends, thereby isolating the contribution of climate change. Under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), climate change increases burned area by 215%, CO2 emissions by 220%, and the occurrence of 1-in-10 year and 1-in-50 year fires by 85% and 280%, whereas in a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) these metrics increase only marginally (0 - 20%). This corresponds to elevated population exposure of 180% (240,000 individuals) in SSP5-8.5 but only 40% (35,000 individuals within 100km of burning) in SSP5-2.6 due to climate change. We then apply the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) carbon model to estimate the social cost of the loss of carbon from Canadian wildfires attributed to climate change. We find that the social cost of carbon from Canadian wildfires attributed to climate change ranges between 43.4 billion $/yr (SSP5-8.5) and 3.4 billion $/yr (SSP1-2.6). Overall, our results highlight the necessity of immediate and drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions alongside fire management strategies to stabilize impacts on ecosystems and well-being.
Location Name
McCain 2021
Full Address
Dalhousie University
Halifax NS
Canada
Halifax NS
Canada
Session Type
Oral Presentation
Abstract ID
41
Speaker Organization
Simon Fraser University
Session Name
B5 (3 of 3)
Co-authors
Salvatore Curasi, Renee Hall, and Joe Melton
Presenting Author
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Simon Fraser University