Agricultural watersheds of Canadian Prairies (CP) export food and virtual water to over a hundred countries globally. The relationship between virtual water export (VWE), hydrological processes, and nutrient cycling are not studied in CP and similar watersheds in major breadbaskets of mid-to-high latitude regions. These watersheds are known for their hydrology typical of cold region and for their geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), known as Prairie Potholes. GIWs in croplands of CP are crucial in regulating water and nutrient cycling across watersheds. We employed a hybrid approach integrating machine learning techniques with process-based agro-hydrological models, utilizing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This provided a basis to investigate the impacts of global warming on watershed hydrology, snow-to-groundwater droughts, and examining their relationship with VWE and considering the alterations of GIWs.
Our results indicated that future VWE outweighs historical renewable water yield of 66 billion m3 and counts for 47% of total historical precipitation and 61% of total historical actual ET. This is compounded with projected loss of GIWs in southern catchments, potentially impacting water quality and nutrient loads. Our research underscores the critical importance of understanding the role of VWE on regulating local hydrological processes and water quality under extreme events, and it emphasizes the need for assessment of environmentally informed VWE to inform sustainable agriculture and water-food security in the future.