The magnitude and frequency of slope failures in permafrost zones have increased in the last decades. Permafrost degradation likely represents a major contributing factor to large slope failures, which can then induce damage to infrastructure or downstream outburst flooding. Investigating the link between permafrost and slope failure is thus crucial for mitigating related geohazards and increasing public safety. We aim to establish correlations between these events and the timing of permafrost warming or other drivers (including air and ground temperature, water production, and thaw depth) by focusing on recent slope failures in British Columbia. We also study the spatial patterns of these variables on mountains that have been subject to such failures to better investigate the spatial distribution of the geohazards due to climate change. We developed a simulation workflow to generate 1D simulations at any point globally. We then used the ensemble simulation output to produce summary statistics of drivers at sites in the vicinity of glaciers which have recently experienced large slope failures. For each site, we observe general air and ground warming together with extreme deviation from the drivers’ mean behavior corresponding to the timing of rock falls in some instances. Spatially, we find that the role of snow is significant, especially in response to slope, and that rockfall events occurred on mountain facets that experienced either high equilibrium ground-surface temperatures or extreme warming. These demonstrator applications constitute a first step towards establishing meaningful proxies of triggers in future full-scale analysis and hence better slope failure predictions.
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