The Arctic is warming 4x faster than the global average, with lake ice cover duration shortening in response to this warming. Changing ice regimes will increase the role of lakes within the regional radiation balance through climate variability. Studying Arctic lakes is logistically difficult and lake ice models are important tools that can be used to study changes in ice-covered lakes. The Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) is a well-tested one-dimensional thermodynamic freshwater ice model that has been used to successfully simulate lake ice phenology. CLIMo can also calculate the radiation balance over a lake for a full season and was validated for the open water season using data from a small High Arctic Lake in Resolute, NU (Ia = 0.72 – 0.82). This study presents projected simulated radiation balance trends for the open water season, annual and seasonal radiation balance trends using CMIP5, RCP 8.5 scenario. Annually, net and shortwave radiation are projected to increase (~1-2 Wm-2 and 1.2-2Wm-2, respectively), and longwave radiation is projected to decrease (0.5-1 Wm-2). During the open water season, only net longwave radiation is significantly increasing with at ~0.4 Wm-2 per decade. These results show the importance of understanding how net radiation and its components are derived within CLIMo, so that we can understand their variability and contribution within the model. The results, in turn can be used to determine how net radiation and its components will contribute and change a small lake’s energy balance under a warming climate in the High Arctic.
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