
Most of the globe has experienced significant warming trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, these rates of warming are also influenced by short-term climate fluctuations driven by atmospheric circulation dynamics, resulting in inconsistent trend magnitudes in both time and space. This research evaluated winter (Dec to Feb) temperature trends over 1950-2020 at 91 climate stations across British Columbia (BC), Alberta (AB), and Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, and determined the components attributed to thermodynamic and dynamic [atmospheric circulation] factors. A synoptic climatological approach was used to classify atmospheric circulation patterns in the mid-troposphere, relate those patterns to surface temperature, and evaluate changes in frequency. Moderate-high temperature increases over 71 years were found for most of the region, averaging 3.1°C in southern SK to 4.1°C in central-northern AB, and a maximum of 5.8°C in northern BC. Low-moderate increases were found for southern BC, averaging 1.2°C. Changes in atmospheric circulation accounted for 29% and 31% of observed temperature changes in central-northern BC and AB, respectively. Dynamic factors were a moderate driver in southern AB (18%) and central-northern SK (13%), and low in southern SK (5%). Negative dynamic contributions in southern BC (-6%), suggest atmospheric circulation changes counteracted thermodynamically-driven temperature changes. Results were consistent with trend analyses, indicating this method is well-suited for trend detection and identification of thermodynamic and dynamic drivers.
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