A warming climate in Canada whereby temperatures are increasing nearly twice as fast as the global average has provided certain benefits as the available seasonal crop heat units and frost-free periods have increased. However, in the future, some agricultural regions could be subject to higher incidences of extreme drought, increased crop heat stresses and excess water. The DSSAT, STICS and DNDC models were employed to estimate changes in soybean yield across Canada from 1980 to 2100, considering regions where soybeans are currently grown and possible areas of expansion. The models were previously verified for simulating soybean growth and development within the AgMIP-Soybean Initiative and also by using local Canadian observations. Two soybean maturity groups were simulated at each of 79 locations and the cultivars varied depending on the region. Simulations were performed using climate scenarios based on five GCMs under three shared socioeconomic pathways from phase 3b of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. We found that future warmer climate with longer growing seasons would increase soybean yields across much of Canada. However, an increase in crop water stress in the semi-arid prairies could result in yields being constrained with increased volatility in the future. Northward expansion could occur in regions where soybeans are not currently grown but this expansion is limited to low maturity group cultivars since soybeans require a short photoperiod. In regions where soybeans are currently grown in Canada, higher maturity group cultivars could be grown by the 2050s, which would in general allow for increased yields.
1125 Colonel By Dr
Ottawa ON K1S 5B6
Canada